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deepthought
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Post subject: Psephology Posted: Sun Jul 18, 2010 8:04 am |
Joined: Wed May 14, 2008 6:33 pm Posts: 12269
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The first popularity poll of the election. Though not a true believer, I thought it would be interesting to track the popularity polls through this short campaign. The polls in years gone by have been almost universally inaccurate though they become closer to the final result (borne out by the result on election day) as the final day nears. This, being the first, may give some indication of a trend in the public perception of the parties and, more particularly, the leaders. While many people vote for policies, many are also influenced heavily by leaders - Jules and the ALP have shown this to be true by executing Kev a couple of weeks ago. If it was policy which influenced voters, why change leaders? Jules was one of the engineers behind Kev (she said so), so the mess Kev created belongs to her anyway. Note the first party preferred favours the coalition, but the ALP will win, according to this poll, on the basis of the ALP picking up the Greens vote. Quote: Poll puts Labor ahead as campaign beginsThe first opinion poll of the 2010 election campaign shows Labor leading the Coalition after preferences by 52 to 48. The Galaxy poll, published in News Limited papers today, has the Liberal primary vote at 42 per cent, Labor is below that on 39 per cent and the Greens on 13 per cent. It is the Greens preferences that give Labor its lead over the Coalition. Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has been attacking Labor over the way former prime minister Kevin Rudd lost the leadership to Julia Gillard, calling it an assassination. The Galaxy poll finds 57 per cent of those surveyed think the way it happened will harm Labor's re-election chances. But Ms Gillard has a 23 point lead over Mr Abbott as preferred prime minister. Most people surveyed say they think the Labor party will win the election. Link
_________________ Political Animal Australia
changing the political landscape, one step at a time
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deepthought
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Post subject: Re: Psephology Posted: Sun Jul 18, 2010 8:55 pm |
Joined: Wed May 14, 2008 6:33 pm Posts: 12269
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The second poll shows the ALP slipping. Quote: New poll shows Labor's support slippingThe latest opinion polls has seen support for Labor slipping, with the coalition getting an early swing that could clinch it power. A Galaxy poll conducted for the Nine Network in the 24 hours after Prime Minister Julia Gillard called the election showed Labor's primary vote had dropped to 38 per cent. The coalition's vote was up to 44 per cent, putting both parties at 50 per cent on a two-party preferred basis. This represented a 2.7 per cent swing to the coalition, enough to put them in power. The Saturday Galaxy poll took the gloss off the results of another Galaxy opinion poll conducted 24 hours earlier, on Friday evening, before the August 21 election was called - which showed Labor maintaining a two-party preferred lead - 52-48% - over the coalition. But even in that poll, there were worrying signs for Labor. Its primary vote support dropped two points to 39%, down from 41% in a poll taken last Sunday. Link I'm sure the polls will slip and slide a fair bit. But tracking them, for the first time ever, is interesting. What will tomorrow hold for the major parties?
_________________ Political Animal Australia
changing the political landscape, one step at a time
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deepthought
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Post subject: Re: Psephology Posted: Mon Jul 26, 2010 5:36 am |
Joined: Wed May 14, 2008 6:33 pm Posts: 12269
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And a week on; Quote: Coalition narrows the gapTHE election campaign has become a tight contest, with the Coalition back in front on primary votes. Furthermore, Tony Abbott has narrowed the leadership gap on Julia Gillard. The latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian, reveals voters have turned against Labor's proposal for a citizens assembly on climate change and that the women's vote advantage for Australia's first female Prime Minister has disappeared. Labor's 10-point lead on a two-party-preferred basis at the start of the election campaign has been reduced to a knife-edge 52 per cent to 48 per cent over the weekend, while the Coalition's primary vote jumped four points to 42 per cent, compared with Labor's 40 per cent, down from 42 per cent. The two-party-preferred vote, based on preference flows at the 2007 election, is now the same as it was the weekend before Labor dumped Kevin Rudd as prime minister and put Ms Gillard into the job - only three weeks before she called the election. <snip> Labor is behind on primary vote for the first time in the three Newspoll surveys since Ms Gillard became Prime Minister. The two-party-preferred vote is the same as it was the weekend before Mr Rudd was removed, Mr Abbott is the closest to Ms Gillard as preferred prime minister since she took over. Link
_________________ Political Animal Australia
changing the political landscape, one step at a time
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deepthought
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Post subject: Re: Psephology Posted: Thu Jul 29, 2010 8:47 pm |
Joined: Wed May 14, 2008 6:33 pm Posts: 12269
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Maybe it's goodbye Jules. You won't be missed. Quote: Gillard takes another poll hitJulia Gillard has taken another dive in the polls, down five points in the first survey of voters since Sunday night's leaders debate. On the Morgan Poll's two party-preferred basis, The ALP holds a 6 per cent election-winning lead, down from 11 per cent last week. The ALP's primary vote is down two points to 42 per cent, while the Opposition's vote is up 3.5 percentage points, picking up two points from Labor, half a point each from the Greens, Family First and other independents. Link
_________________ Political Animal Australia
changing the political landscape, one step at a time
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Mantra
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Post subject: Re: Psephology Posted: Thu Jul 29, 2010 9:12 pm |
Joined: Tue May 20, 2008 5:52 pm Posts: 2280
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The polls are so erratic that no-one can be sure where anyone stands. The thought of Abbott as leader to us lefties is as distressing as Gillard is to the right.
One day Gillard is in favour - the next day everyone hates her. She is getting slammed in this campaign and if she manages to stand up to the bullies and get through this - she deserves to be elected.
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deepthought
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Post subject: Re: Psephology Posted: Thu Jul 29, 2010 9:19 pm |
Joined: Wed May 14, 2008 6:33 pm Posts: 12269
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Mantra wrote: The polls are so erratic that no-one can be sure where anyone stands. The thought of Abbott as leader to us lefties is as distressing as Gillard is to the right.
One day Gillard is in favour - the next day everyone hates her. She is getting slammed in this campaign and if she manages to stand up to the bullies and get through this - she deserves to be elected. I'm taking it you have no concern for the next few generations? And you are right, she sure is the target of a vicious campaign. From the ALP. Including herself. She's working hard to make herself look incompetent. Quote: The prime minister was at a preschool in Melbourne when she was asked about border protection, following the arrival of another asylum seeker boat off Christmas Island.
But when attempting to explain her policy, Ms Gillard slipped up when pointing to talks with East Timor about the processing centre plan, instead saying negotiations were under way with Nauru.
_________________ Political Animal Australia
changing the political landscape, one step at a time
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Kevin Dudd
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Post subject: Re: Psephology Posted: Thu Jul 29, 2010 9:42 pm |
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I'm helping http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-2 ... attle.htmlQuote: Gillard, Abbott Tied in Poll as Leaks Overshadow Australia Election Battle
Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard and conservative opposition leader Tony Abbott drew level in voter support as reports of leaks by members of Gillard’s government threaten to destabilize her election campaign.
Gillard’s rating fell 12 percentage points to 46 percent in the lead up to the Aug. 21 ballot, while Abbott rose 11 points to 46 percent compared with a survey a week earlier, a Morgan poll published today showed. The telephone survey of 680 people on July 27 and 28 has a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Still, the poll found Labor leads the opposition with 53 percent support to 47 percent.
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Mantra
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Post subject: Re: Psephology Posted: Thu Jul 29, 2010 10:55 pm |
Joined: Tue May 20, 2008 5:52 pm Posts: 2280
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deepthought wrote: I'm taking it you have no concern for the next few generations?
And you are right, she sure is the target of a vicious campaign. From the ALP. Including herself.
Of course I have concern for future generations, but Abbott isn't a good representative for a sustainable Australia. He wants the population increased and refuses to curtail mining by not imposing the rent tax. He wants to see Australia look like a quarry. Hopefully our children and grandchildren will survive no matter who is in power, but when the coalition led the country - I imagined future generations working for a bowl of rice a day while the ultra right conservatives continued with their divisive social and industrial policies allowing corporations to accumulate their massive profits. When I think of a future impacted by a Labor government - at least our progeny will have a fair wage to pay our fair debt and the difference being is that they will be able to afford meat and vegetables with their rice. For that we will be able to thank the Greens for ensuring that our land is healthy and sustainable for our population now and into the future.
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deepthought
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Post subject: Re: Psephology Posted: Fri Jul 30, 2010 5:50 am |
Joined: Wed May 14, 2008 6:33 pm Posts: 12269
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Mantra wrote: Of course I have concern for future generations, but Abbott isn't a good representative for a sustainable Australia. He wants the population increased and refuses to curtail mining by not imposing the rent tax. He wants to see Australia look like a quarry.
Hopefully our children and grandchildren will survive no matter who is in power, but when the coalition led the country - I imagined future generations working for a bowl of rice a day while the ultra right conservatives continued with their divisive social and industrial policies allowing corporations to accumulate their massive profits.
When I think of a future impacted by a Labor government - at least our progeny will have a fair wage to pay our fair debt and the difference being is that they will be able to afford meat and vegetables with their rice. For that we will be able to thank the Greens for ensuring that our land is healthy and sustainable for our population now and into the future.
While a fanciful imagination can help one pass the time it is not a good basis on which to consider the future. First consider the past. He wants to see Australia look like a quarry;Quote: In 2007, the final year of the coalition's terms in office Australia’s total value of trade in goods and services was $454 billion in an expanding economy.
In 2009, the figure was $506.8 billion in a shrinking market.
Worse still for us was the balance of exports. I imagined future generations working for a bowl of rice a day while the ultra right conservatives continued with their divisive social and industrial policies allowing corporations to accumulate their massive profits;Quote: Kim Beazley: We achieved 13 years of wage restraint under the Accord. The wage share of GDP came down from 60.1 per cent when we took office down to the lowest it had been since 1968. We left office with the wage share of GDP at 55.3 per cent.
That allowed corporate profits to rise to record levels in 1984. For every year afterwards, the corporate profit share of GDP was higher than in any recorded year before we had come to office.
By the 1990s, the profit share of GDP was consistently around 23 per cent, a full 5 percentage points higher than when we took office. In other words, we basically slowed wage growth so that we could raise corporate profits by a whopping 5 percentage points of GDP. Quote: 1983 - 1996: Under the Prices and Incomes Accord introduced by Hawke, workers' real wages fell between 17 and 28%. Quote: 2009; The Commission has decided not to raise the minimum wage rate above its current level of just under $544 a week (an hourly rate at $14.31), with a consequence that, due to inflation, the value of wages has fallen in real terms. pay our fair debt and the difference being is that they will be able to afford meat and vegetables with their rice;Quote: http://www.debtclock.com.au/Bureau of Statistics figures released show electricity prices in Melbourne have soared by more than 53 per cent since the 2007 election in which former PM Kevin Rudd made living costs for "working families" a top issue. Water prices have risen by 38 per cent, gas by 28 per cent, rent by 14 per cent and tobacco by 27 per cent. The increasing demand for hospital and medical services saw an 18 per cent price jump with medicines up 17 per cent. The report card on Labor's prices campaign in 2007 shows the average basket of food for a Melbourne family was 7.5 per cent more expensive than when John Howard was in power. Bread, cheese, lamb and fish were top of the list. The truth is quite different to your imagination. When you vote you need to put aside any ideological hatreds and vote for a fair go for Australians. Because I have no idea where you have been living, but it isn't Australia if you can't see the reality before you.
_________________ Political Animal Australia
changing the political landscape, one step at a time
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Mantra
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Post subject: Re: Psephology Posted: Fri Jul 30, 2010 6:56 am |
Joined: Tue May 20, 2008 5:52 pm Posts: 2280
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Quote: The truth is quite different to your imagination.
When you vote you need to put aside any ideological hatreds and vote for a fair go for Australians. Because I have no idea where you have been living, but it isn't Australia if you can't see the reality before you. DT - the above comments can be likened to the pot calling the kettle black. You also need to put aside your ideological hatred for the other team. The Howard years are still fresh in my mind and there are many people who aren't prepared to return to those days. We know that Abbott will be Howard's proxy and the Liberals still have work to do ensuring that those on the bottom ring don't manage to climb any further. You can drag random comments out and use them as "evidence" of Labor's previous mismanagement etc. but the same thing happened under the Coalition also. I think that some of us would like to give Gillard a chance. Labor is far from perfect - but so is the opposition. It's a choice we have to make between the lesser of two evils. We've seen Abbott's sanctimonious spruiking for years and his rabid tongue when he loses it. He is too old to change his spots now and the combination of Howard and the extreme right Christian, Nuclear lobbies etc. pulling his strings if the coalition is returned is too unpleasant to contemplate.
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deepthought
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Post subject: Re: Psephology Posted: Fri Jul 30, 2010 4:19 pm |
Joined: Wed May 14, 2008 6:33 pm Posts: 12269
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Mantra wrote: Quote: The truth is quite different to your imagination.
When you vote you need to put aside any ideological hatreds and vote for a fair go for Australians. Because I have no idea where you have been living, but it isn't Australia if you can't see the reality before you. DT - the above comments can be likened to the pot calling the kettle black. You also need to put aside your ideological hatred for the other team. The Howard years are still fresh in my mind and there are many people who aren't prepared to return to those days. We know that Abbott will be Howard's proxy and the Liberals still have work to do ensuring that those on the bottom ring don't manage to climb any further. You can drag random comments out and use them as "evidence" of Labor's previous mismanagement etc. but the same thing happened under the Coalition also. I think that some of us would like to give Gillard a chance. Labor is far from perfect - but so is the opposition. It's a choice we have to make between the lesser of two evils. We've seen Abbott's sanctimonious spruiking for years and his rabid tongue when he loses it. He is too old to change his spots now and the combination of Howard and the extreme right Christian, Nuclear lobbies etc. pulling his strings if the coalition is returned is too unpleasant to contemplate. Once again, you need to distance yourself from your imagination, release the ideology and provide some proof for your claims. If the GALP will provide a better future based on their track record then let's see it. Let's see evidence of their past that will give us something to look forward to for the future. I know that the GALP have given us higher average inflation, fewer university places, longer waiting times for elective surgery, higher unemployment, lower wages, higher private debt, public debt we did not have before, a higher volume and value of raw materials exports, a new uranium mine, record profits and reduced competition for banks, foreign government ownership of mines, less spent on mental health, the dumping of the solar rebate, the waste of billions on worthless programs and the cash giveaway to Harvey Norman and Westfield. So you telll me what good they did for the country.
_________________ Political Animal Australia
changing the political landscape, one step at a time
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deepthought
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Post subject: Re: Psephology Posted: Fri Jul 30, 2010 5:03 pm |
Joined: Wed May 14, 2008 6:33 pm Posts: 12269
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Here's another example from just today. What the real green government gives, the GALP takes away. Quote: Solar centre powers on despite $20M hitA world-renowned solar research centre has lost $20 million in federal funding in what green advocates say is a massive blow to Australia's efforts in renewable energy. The decision to deny research funding to the award-winning University of NSW Photovoltaic Centre of Excellence comes as the prime minister faces continued criticism for planned cuts to solar programs to fund her "cash-for-clunkers" low-emissions car program. John Grimes, chief executive of the Australian Solar Energy Society says the latest blow cuts seven years of funding for high-level research at the university. "The centre is really important. It's been described as a jewel in the crown of world research," he told AAP on Friday. "It's consistently held efficiency records. It employs the top researchers in the field globally." In 2007, researchers at the centre won several Eureka Prizes for producing the world's most efficient and low-cost solar cells. Its biggest claim to fame is training Dr Zhengrong Shi, who became the world's first billionaire from solar power technology. But the solar centre was refused a renewal of its Australian research grant this year, understood to be worth over $20 million over seven years. Link Johnny had a very strong focus on alternative energy sources with funds for projects such as this, all ten of the largest wind farms in Australia were planned and/or commissioned during the terms of the coaliton, the world's second largest solar power station was a joint venture with funds from the Howard Government, the solar rebate scheme was an initiative of the coalition . . . The GALP have dumped the schemes and refused funding for ongoing projects. And as the Greens are in an informal coalition with the ALP it tells me volumes about their motivation for their back room preference deal. The trough. Fuck the environment.
_________________ Political Animal Australia
changing the political landscape, one step at a time
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deepthought
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Post subject: Re: Psephology Posted: Fri Jul 30, 2010 5:27 pm |
Joined: Wed May 14, 2008 6:33 pm Posts: 12269
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And the Greens pretend to be annoyed; Quote: Greens say Labor's solar ads dishonestGreens Senator Christine Milne is demanding Labor stop using political ads that feature solar power in view of funding cuts that hit the alternative power source. The Greens say an award-winning solar research centre has lost its funding so Labor can fund its cash-for-clunkers car-replacement program .. under which people will get two thousand dollars if they replace old polluting cars with cleaner new ones. Senator Milne says the funding cuts to research mean the University of New South Wales Photovoltaic Centre of Excellence will go without funding and close its doors after producing the world's most efficient and low-cost solar cells in 2007. Link "Stop lying" says Bob Brown, "but in the meantime let's swap preferences so we can get our snouts in that trough".
_________________ Political Animal Australia
changing the political landscape, one step at a time
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Green Lantern
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Post subject: Re: Psephology Posted: Fri Jul 30, 2010 7:25 pm |
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Maybe not Bob, maybe you teaming up with Gillard will get you to the place you deserve. The rubbish bin. http://www.smartcompany.com.au/politics ... -neck.htmlQuote: ELECTION 2010: Opinion polls suggest Labor and Coaltion now neck-and-neck
Labor's lead of the Coalition appears to be dwindling, with a poll from research company Galaxy suggesting the party-preferred vote is now split 50/50 between the two parties.
The poll, taken earlier this week, suggests Prime Minister Julia Gillard's campaign may been hurt by this week's damaging leak which suggested she originally questioned key Labor policies of introducing a paid parental leave plan and increasing payments to pensioners.
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Mantra
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Post subject: Re: Psephology Posted: Fri Jul 30, 2010 9:28 pm |
Joined: Tue May 20, 2008 5:52 pm Posts: 2280
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Regardless of the derision the Greens are constantly subject to - some of their policies will get through if Labor wins. This is the first time I've ever had to defend Labor - as until the last Federal and State election - I had never given them my preference. I'm not entirely happy with them and not impressed with the cash for clunkers scheme which will be rorted, or the National Broadband scheme, but I'm even more wary of the Liberals. They empower the wrong people. I would like to see a carbon tax, welfare being means tested and a decline in mining and deforestation - the Liberals can't offer that. It might come down to tossing a coin as to who to put last on the list. Quote: Solar centre powers on despite $20M hit This is very disappointing, although I haven't looked into the background of this company. Silex also was recently overlooked - but that was justified as they haven't proven their credibility in solar energy yet.
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