Poll Tracking

[Jovial Monk]

ACN just suffered a big blow to their reputation.

Essential Research comes in with the primaries running 52 (up 2) / 32 (down 1) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 61/39 the same way - Labor up 1 from last week. This comes from a two week rolling sample of 1893 giving an MoE around the 2.3% mark.

The thing that was weird about the Nielsen, a huge drop in Victoria, 25% or something in Labor support, not feasible. Also 58% approved of the budget so why not approve of the govt that drew up that budget? They have stuffed up somewhere. Still, we will see what Newspoll says tonight.

[Jovial Monk]

Newspoll:

primaries running 46 (up 4) / 37 (down 1) to Labor
Big drop for Rudd in the satisfied - 64-58, 6pt drop in PPM.
Turnbull stays negative - 40-42
TPP 56/44

So some fall out over the pension age increase, the ALP needs to communicate the facts why they are running a deficit: falling tax receipts (because Tip stuffed up the budget for 11 years!) and how we will

[Jovial Monk]

http://www.essentialmedia.com.au/Media/ ... 090609.pdf

After a couple of weeks where Labor support softened a point or two, the latest ER report suggests that that is over and that people are becoming more optimistic.

With improvements in Chinese & Japanese economies we should be out of recession (tho some dips likely still ahead) by the end of the year (NAB business confidence survey shows a good rise in confidence, leading to business investment) and when that happens Labor is assured another 2-3 elections (esp as a lot of the world wil still be in recession) and deservedly so!

[Jovial Monk]

This weeks ER firmed another point or two for Labor, Morgan also (off smallish sample) Labor firming now Newspoll says primaries 41:40 and TPP 53:47, are the polls wrong? NO! Just the workings of probability.

Newspoll figures don't swing around as much as some, bigger samples for one due to the Oz paying for their surveys. A big sample is still only 1000-1500 people surveyed. While they give a statistic estimating the "measure of central tendency" i.e. primary polling figures (TPP is usually not surveyed but calculated using preference flows from last election.) They less commonly give a measure of dispersion tho these can be calculated/looked up.

All these 'statistics' of voter intention vary about a sampling mean that will be close to the mean of the population.

All this a longwinded way of saying one poll doesn't mean that much, look at the trend. By a statistical sampling fluke I believe that Newspoll's mean (primary vote, remember) is on the low side. I don't say that because I want Labor to have a high vote, this result sort of comes out the blue and against the trend of other polls in the last fortnight. Particularly, the Newspoll result doesn't mesh with ER polling that shows people becoming more confident that the government is handling the economy well and that people are becoming more confident about economic prospects. Kevin is still PPM by a huge margin and Truffles is only just out of a negative net satisfaction.

A lot of journalists have been pontificating about this Newspoll, parading their statistical naivette and ignorance. Fools! This poll was most likely a "rogue poll" and in two weeks Newspoll will show a more 'normal' result.

There, I have made a prediction! Let's see how my prediction does in 2 weeks!

[Jovial Monk]

Essential Research, conducted at the height of the so-called Utegate shows. . .





. . .57:43 unchanged!


Most want the ETS/tougher ETS introduced soon.

Malcolm is fucked.

[Jovial Monk]

A quite small (524) Roy Morgan poll, not really worth reporting except that is is in line with the latest Newspoll/Galaxy/ACNielsen/Essential Research:

Kevin Rudd clearly viewed as ‘Better PM’ (70% cf. 20%);
Turnbull’s disapproval rises 23.5% to record 62.5%

Rudd Government support up as ALP (56%, up 1%) ahead of L-NP (44%, down 1%)

Possum (http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/20 ... -17-seats/) reckons on the figures of the last 3 polls Labor is 80% likely to pick up another 14 seats (and a better position in the Senate.)

And you know, the primary and 2PP results have not changed much since Dec 2006 when Rudd took over. When the last week of the election campaign arrives and the swingers and nervous nellies make up their minds they are likely to decide to vote for the govt that is in, i.e. Labor. I would imagine 14 seats is just the beginning.

[Rainbow Moonlight]

I wonder if losing a state or two will make a difference to Federal Labor? Aren't polls predicting a big loss in NSW?

[Jovial Monk]

I think Labor will win next fed election regardless of NSW, but I bet the Ruddster will get state labor to go an election before the Fed election.

[JW Frogen]

100% of respondants in the latest Frogen poll said they love JW Frogen.

I was the only one who responded.

[Jovial Monk]

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/ ... 060709.pdf

Essential Research 59:41

ER is biased (in their sampling algorithm) to Labor. Continues the trend of the four polls last week.

Other questions about Leadership etc:

Q. Which of the following do you think would be the best person to be Leader of the Opposition?

Malcolm Turnbull 13%
Joe Hockey 17%
Greg Hunt 1%
Tony Abbott 7%
Brendan Nelson 3%
Julie Bishop 8%
Someone else 20%
Don’t know 32%

So a Leadership team of D. Know and S. Else as Deputy Leader would be a great choice