Rule of Succession

[AiA in Atlanta]

What this theory seems to be saying is that if a book has been in print 100 years, it will probably be in print another 100 years.
Or conversely, if a book has only been in print 1 year it won't be in print much longer.

If a bicycle is 40 years old and is in good shape due to regular maintenance it will probably be in good shape another 40 years from now with regular maintenance. A bicycle only 1 year old is probably on its way to the scrap heap.

A robust religion 2500 years old will still be robust 2500 years from now but Scientology will be history.

In 1000 years humans will still be using candles and fireplaces and writing letters and enjoying the occasional horseback ride but no one will know what the hell the iPhone is.

Any thoughts?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_succession

[freediver]

Spice Girls.

[IQS.RLOW]

Spice Girls.

Will your tears flow if Justin Beiber doesn't get the chance to release a 'best of' ?

[Mattus]

It is a shitty theory.

Take, for example, your 1 year old bicycle. Every morning you ride to work on it and it gets you there, except once for a flat tyre once, forcing you to walk for a day.

Using Laplace's rule, the probability of it getting you to work tomorrow is 364:365 or 99.7% in favour of it.

But the next day while riding to work, you get hit by a freight train, killing you and annihilating the bicycle. Laplace's rule still rates the probability of it getting you to work tomorrow as 364:366 or 99.4% in favour of it.

Even two years later, when your wife has remarried and had a new baby, and your dog has forgotten who you are, and bicycles have been replaced by hovercraft, Laplace's rule still has a probability of that bike and you getting to work at 364:1095 or 33.2%. Pretty optimistic.

[AiA in Atlanta]

Can't speak for it mathematically but I think heuristically it is a valid and handy rule of thumb: in 50 years whose name will be recognized, Elvis Presley or Justin Bieber? Which book will still be in print, The Great Gatsby or 50 Shades of Grey?

Sure, the rider of the 40 year old bicycle could be hit by a train on the way to work tomorrow but that event can't be predicted anyway ...

[freediver]

A similar concept used in asset maintenance is the bathtub rule. Intellectual property is the only property that lasts forever. And real estate I suppose.