Global Warming

[skippy]

Denial of the science is malpractice

Brilliant, who's quote is that? I might pinch as a signature.
The fuckwits that deny it are murderers, there is enough evidence that to deny is to murder.

Your lot should be culled from the earth. Ive got a bullet with your name on it skip.

Oh ,how sweet,still got the hots for me.

[skippy]

Glad to see you back skip.

Thanks,SN, I know IQ was fretting.

[Neferti]

Glad to see you back skip.

Thanks,SN, I know IQ was fretting.

I'm glad you are back too, Skip.

[skippy]

Glad to see you back skip.

Thanks,SN, I know IQ was fretting.

I'm glad you are back too, Skip.

Ooh thanks Nef, I feel the loooove.

[IQS.RLOW]

The type of love you should feel.

[skippy]

The type of love you should feel.

Still such a flirt hey big boy?

[DaS Energy]

Adaptation is planning.

"An adaptation, also called an adaptive trait, in biology is a trait with a current functional role in the life history of an organism that is maintained and evolved by means of natural selection. Adaptation refers to both the current state of being adapted and to the dynamic evolutionary process that leads to the adaptation. Adaptations contribute to the fitness and survival of individuals. Organisms face a succession of environmental challenges as they grow and develop and are equipped with an adaptive plasticity as the phenotype of traits develop in response to the imposed conditions. The developmental norm of reaction for any given trait is essential to the correction of adaptation as it affords a kind of biological insurance or resilience to varying environments."

Learning how to grow food crops never grown in the environment before. Relaxing on the beach now under water. Taking the boat not the train going to work. Lots to plan there!

[DaS Energy]

Questions? How does the Coal-itions Sovereign Risk "Solar power needs Coal back up" help in reducing Coal pollution. How does the Coal-itions legislation minimum Coal pollution levels affect Coal pollution. What added impact does this have upon Global Warming.

[Super Nova]

There is no Global Warming according to statistics so I guess the answer would be none.

Man you are is so much denial we need a new 12 step programme for you anti-reality-in-denial-climate-science-vandals.

Anyway, here is a best up-to-date article that explains the situation even if you deniers of the scale of warming was not as predicted 11 years ago.

So if we do sweet fuck all then we are reach a threshold where we will be doing harm to humankind... just 22 to 32 years away. Even if it is 32 years away we still need to take action... now. man this is in out lifetime.

In Brief
The rate at which the earth's temperature has been rising eased slightly in the past decade, but temperature is still increasing; calling the slowdown a “pause” is false.
New calculations by the author indicate that if the world continues to burn fossil fuels at the current rate, global warming will rise to two degrees Celsius by 2036, crossing a threshold that will harm human civilization.
To avoid the threshold, nations will have to keep carbon dioxide levels below 405 parts per million.

To my wonder, I found that for an ECS of three degrees C, our planet would cross the dangerous warming threshold of two degrees C in 2036, only 22 years from now. When I considered the lower ECS value of 2.5 degrees C, the world would cross the threshold in 2046, just 10 years later

So even if we accept a lower ECS value, it hardly signals the end of global warming or even a pause. Instead it simply buys us a little bit of time—potentially valuable time—to prevent our planet from crossing the threshold.

And this is a view on your option.

“Temperatures have been flat for 15 years—nobody can properly explain it,” the Wall Street Journal says. “Global warming ‘pause’ may last for 20 more years, and Arctic sea ice has already started to recover,” the Daily Mail says. Such reassuring claims about climate abound in the popular media, but they are misleading at best. Global warming continues unabated, and it remains an urgent problem.

Full article from Scientific American, a good rag that has only peer reviewed option published.

Earth Will Cross the Climate Danger Threshold by 2036

The rate of global temperature rise may have hit a plateau, but a climate crisis still looms in the near future
Mar 18, 2014 |By Michael E. Mann

“Temperatures have been flat for 15 years—nobody can properly explain it,” the Wall Street Journal says. “Global warming ‘pause’ may last for 20 more years, and Arctic sea ice has already started to recover,” the Daily Mail says. Such reassuring claims about climate abound in the popular media, but they are misleading at best. Global warming continues unabated, and it remains an urgent problem.

The misunderstanding stems from data showing that during the past decade there was a slowing in the rate at which the earth's average surface temperature had been increasing. The event is commonly referred to as “the pause,” but that is a misnomer: temperatures still rose, just not as fast as during the prior decade. The important question is, What does the short-term slowdown portend for how the world may warm in the future?

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is charged with answering such questions. In response to the data, the IPCC in its September 2013 report lowered one aspect of its prediction for future warming. Its forecasts, released every five to seven years, drive climate policy worldwide, so even the small change raised debate over how fast the planet is warming and how much time we have to stop it. The IPCC has not yet weighed in on the impacts of the warming or how to mitigate it, which it will do in reports that were due this March and April. Yet I have done some calculations that I think can answer those questions now: If the world keeps burning fossil fuels at the current rate, it will cross a threshold into environmental ruin by 2036. The “faux pause” could buy the planet a few extra years beyond that date to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and avoid the crossover—but only a few.

A Sensitive Debate
The dramatic nature of global warming captured world attention in 2001, when the IPCC published a graph that my co-authors and I devised, which became known as the “hockey stick.” The shaft of the stick, horizontal and sloping gently downward from left to right, indicated only modest changes in Northern Hemisphere temperature for almost 1,000 years—as far back as our data went. The upturned blade of the stick, at the right, indicated an abrupt and unprecedented rise since the mid-1800s. The graph became a lightning rod in the climate change debate, and I, as a result, reluctantly became a public figure. In its September 2013 report, the IPCC extended the stick back in time, concluding that the recent warming was likely unprecedented for at least 1,400 years.

Although the earth has experienced exceptional warming over the past century, to estimate how much more will occur we need to know how temperature will respond to the ongoing human-caused rise in atmospheric greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide. Scientists call this responsiveness “equilibrium climate sensitivity” (ECS). ECS is a common measure of the heating effect of greenhouse gases. It represents the warming at the earth's surface that is expected after the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere doubles and the climate subsequently stabilizes (reaches equilibrium).

The preindustrial level of CO2 was about 280 parts per million (ppm), so double is roughly 560 ppm. Scientists expect this doubling to occur later this century if nations continue to burn fossil fuels as they do now—the “business as usual” scenario—instead of curtailing fossil-fuel use. The more sensitive the atmosphere is to a rise in CO2, the higher the ECS, and the faster the temperature will rise. ECS is shorthand for the amount of warming expected, given a particular fossil-fuel emissions scenario.

It is difficult to determine an exact value of ECS because warming is affected by feedback mechanisms, including clouds, ice and other factors. Different modeling groups come to different conclusions on what the precise effects of these feedbacks may be. Clouds could be the most significant. They can have both a cooling effect, by blocking out incoming sunlight, and a warming effect, by absorbing some of the heat energy that the earth sends out toward space. Which of these effects dominates depends on the type, distribution and altitude of the clouds—difficult for climate models to predict. Other feedback factors relate to how much water vapor there will be in a warmer atmosphere and how fast sea ice and continental ice sheets will melt.

Because the nature of these feedback factors is uncertain, the IPCC provides a range for ECS, rather than a single number. In the September report—the IPCC's fifth major assessment—the panel settled on a range of 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius (roughly three to eight degrees Fahrenheit). The IPCC had lowered the bottom end of the range, down from the two degrees C it had set in its Fourth Assessment Report, issued in 2007. The IPCC based the lowered bound on one narrow line of evidence: the slowing of surface warming during the past decade—yes, the faux pause.

Many climate scientists—myself included—think that a single decade is too brief to accurately measure global warming and that the IPCC was unduly influenced by this one, short-term number. Furthermore, other explanations for the speed bump do not contradict the preponderance of evidence that suggests that temperatures will continue to rise. For example, the accumulated effect of volcanic eruptions during the past decade, including the Icelandic volcano with the impossible name, Eyjafjallajökull, may have had a greater cooling effect on the earth's surface than has been accounted for in most climate model simulations. There was also a slight but measurable decrease in the sun's output that was not taken into account in the IPCC's simulations.

Natural variability in the amount of heat the oceans absorb may have played a role. In the latter half of the decade, La Niña conditions persisted in the eastern and central tropical Pacific, keeping global surface temperatures about 0.1 degree C colder than average—a small effect compared with long-term global warming but a substantial one over a decade. Finally, one recent study suggests that incomplete sampling of Arctic temperatures led to underestimation of how much the globe actually warmed.

None of these plausible explanations would imply that climate is less sensitive to greenhouse gases. Other measurements also do not support the IPCC's revised lower bound of 1.5 degrees C. When all the forms of evidence are combined, they point to a most likely value for ECS that is close to three degrees C. And as it turns out, the climate models the IPCC actually used in its Fifth Assessment Report imply an even higher value of 3.2 degrees C. The IPCC's lower bound for ECS, in other words, probably does not have much significance for future world climate—and neither does the faux pause.

For argument's sake, however, let us take the pause at face value. What would it mean if the actual ECS were half a degree lower than previously thought? Would it change the risks presented by business-as-usual fossil-fuel burning? How quickly would the earth cross the critical threshold?

http://www.scientificamerican.com/artic ... d-by-2036/

[IQS.RLOW]

Michael Mann

Yawn- thoroughly debunked. Even you should have been able to pick up his wildly inaccurate claim of "Global warming continues unabated" when it isn't. Once again I have to repeat for the slow learner NO SIGNIFICANT WARMING"

Do read more that your confirmation bias articles of faith, SN

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/03/24/h ... alse-hype/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Mann’s ‘False Hope’ is false hype

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

The legendary Dr Walter Lewin, Professor of Physics at MIT, used to introduce his undergraduate courses by saying that every result in physics depended ultimately on measurement; that mass, distance, and time are its three fundamental physical units that every observation in these and all of their derivative units is subject to measurement uncertainty; and that every result in physics, if only for this reason, is to some degree uncertain.

Contrast this instinctual humility of the true physicist with the unbecoming and, on the evidence to date, unjustifiable self-assurance of the surprisingly small band of enthusiasts who have sought to tell us there is a “climate crisis”’. Not the least among these is Michael Mann, perpetrator of the Hokey-Stick graph that wrought the faux abolition of the medieval warm period.

In logic, every declarative statement is assigned a truth-value: 1 (or, in computer programs, –1) for true, 0 for false. Let us determine the truth-values of various assertions made by Mann, in a recent article entitled False Hope, published in the propaganda-sheet Scientific American.

Mann’s maunderings and meanderings will be in bold face, followed by what science actually says in Roman face, and the verdict: Truth-value 1, or truth-value 0?

Mann: “Global warming continues unabated.”

Science: Starting in Orwell’s Year (1984), and taking the mean of the five standard global temperature datasets since then, the rate of warming has changed as follows:

1979-1990 Aug 140 months +0.080 Cº/decade.

1979-2002 Apr 280 months +0.153 Cº/decade.

1979-2013 Dec 420 months +0.145 Cº/decade.

The slowdown in the global warming rate has arisen from the long pause, now 13 years 2 months in length on the mean of all five datasets (assuming that HadCRUT4, which is yet to report, shows a result similar to the drop in global temperatures reported by the other four datasets).

Verdict: Truth-value 0. Mann’s statement that global warming “continues unabated is false”, since the warming rate is declining.

Mann: “… during the past decade there was a slowing in the rate at which the earth’s average surface temperature had been increasing. The event is commonly referred to as “the pause,” but that is a misnomer: temperatures still rose, just not as fast as during the prior decade.”

Science: During the decade February 2005 to January 2014, on the mean of all five datasets, there was a warming of 0.01 Cº, statistically indistinguishable from zero.

Truth-value 0: Temperatures did not rise in any statistically significant sense, and the increase was within the measurement uncertainty in the datasets, so that we do not know there was any global warming at all over the decade. Here, Walter Lewin’s insistence on the importance of measurement uncertainty is well demonstrated.

Mann: “In response to the data, the IPCC in its September 2013 report lowered one aspect of its prediction for future warming.”

Science: In 2013 the IPCC reduced the lower bound of its 2007 equilibrium climate-sensitivity interval from 2 Cº to 1.5 Cº warming per CO2 doubling, the value that had prevailed in all previous Assessment Reports. It also reduced the entire interval of near-term projected warming from [0.4, 1.0] Cº to [0.3, 0.7] Cº. Furthermore, it abandoned its previous attempts at providing a central estimate of climate sensitivity.

Verdict: Truth value 0. The IPCC did not lower only “one aspect of its prediction for future warming” but several key aspects, abandoning the central prediction altogether.

Mann: If the world keeps burning fossil fuels at the current rate, it will cross a threshold into environmental ruin by 2036. The “faux pause” could buy the planet a few extra years beyond that date to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and avoid the crossover–but only a few.

Science: Mann is asserting that on the basis of some “calculations” he says he has done, the world will face “environmental ruin” by 2036 or not long thereafter. However, Mann has failed to admit any uncertainty in his “calculations” and consequently in his predictions.

Verdict: Truth-value 0. Given the ever-growing discrepancy between prediction and observation in the models, and Mann’s own disastrous record in erroneously abolishing the medieval warm period by questionable statistical prestidigitation, the uncertainty in his predictions is very large, and a true scientist would have said so.

Mann: “The dramatic nature of global warming captured world attention in 2001, when the IPCC published a graph that my co-authors and I devised, which became known as the ‘hockey stick’. The shaft of the stick, horizontal and sloping gently downward from left to right, indicated only modest changes in Northern Hemisphere temperature for almost 1,000 years–as far back as our data went.”

Science: The Hokey-Stick graph falsely eradicated both the medieval warm period and the little ice age. At co2science.org, Dr. Craig Idso maintains a database of more than 1000 papers demonstrating by measurement (rather than modeling) that the medieval warm period was real, was near-global, and was at least as warm as the present just about everywhere. McIntyre & McKitrick showed the graph to be erroneous, based on multiple failures of good statistical practice. The medieval warm period and the little ice age are well attested in archaeology, history, architecture, and art. It was the blatant nonsense of the Hokey Stick that awoke many to the fact that a small academic clique was peddling unsound politics, not sound science.

Verdict: Truth value 0. Once again, Mann fails to refer to the uncertainties in his reconstructions, and to the many independent studies that have found his methods false and his conclusions erroneous. Here, he takes a self-congratulatory, nakedly partisan stance that is as far from representing true science as it is possible to go.

Mann: “The upturned blade of the stick, at the right, indicated an abrupt and unprecedented rise since the mid-1800s.”

Science: The graph, by confining the analysis to the northern hemisphere, overstated 20th-century global warming by half. Mann says the rise in global temperatures, shown on the graph as 1.1 Cº over the 20th century, is “unprecedented”. However, the Central England Temperature Record, the world’s oldest, showed a rise of 0.9 Cº in the century from 1663 to 1762, almost entirely preceding the industrial revolution, compared with an observed rate of just 0.7 Cº over the 20th century. The CETR is a good proxy for global temperature change. In the 120 years to December 2013 it showed a warming rate within 0.01 Cº of the warming rate taken as the mean of the three global terrestrial datasets.

Verdict: Truth value 0. The warming of the 20th century was less than the warming for the late 17th to the late 18th centuries.



Mann: “The graph became a lightning rod in the climate change debate, and I, as a result, reluctantly became a public figure.”

Science: For “lightning-rod” read “laughing-stock”. For “reluctantly” read “enthusiastically”. For “public figure” read “vain and pompous charlatan who put the ‘Ass’ in ‘Assessment Report’”.

Verdict: Pass the sick-bucket, Alice.

Mann: “In its September 2013 report, the IPCC extended the stick back in time, concluding that the recent warming was likely unprecedented for at least 1400 years.”

Science: The IPCC is here at odds with the published scientific literature. In my expert review of the pre-final draft of the Fifth Assessment Report, I sent the IPCC a list of 450 papers in the reviewed literature that demonstrated the reality of the warm period. The IPCC studiously ignored it. Almost all of the 450 papers are unreferenced in the IPCC’s allegedly comprehensive review of the literature. I conducted a separate test using the IPCC’s own methods, by taking a reconstruction of sea-level change over the past 1000 years, from Grinsted et al. (2009), and comparing it with the schematic in the IPCC’s 1990 First Assessment Report showing the existence and prominence of both the medieval warm period and the little ice age. The two graphs are remarkably similar, indicating the possibility that the sea-level rise in the Middle Ages was caused by the warmer weather then, and that the fall in the Little Ice Age was caused by cooler weather. The sea-level reconstruction conspicuously does not follow a Hokey-Stick shape.



Verdict: Truth value 0. The IPCC has misrepresented the literature on this as on other aspects of climate science. There are of course uncertainties in any 1000-year reconstruction, but if Grinsted et al. have it right then perhaps Mann would care to explain how it was that sea level rose and fell by as much as 8 inches either side of today’s rather average value if there was no global warming or cooling to cause the change?

Mann: “Equilibrium climate sensitivity is shorthand for the amount of warming expected, given a particular fossil-fuel emissions scenario.”

Science: Equilibrium climate sensitivity is a measure of the global warming to be expected in 1000-3000 years’ time in response to a doubling of CO2 concentration, regardless of how that doubling came about. It has nothing to do with fossil-fuel emissions scenarios.

Truth value: 0. Mann may well be genuinely ignorant here (as elsewhere).

Mann: “Because the nature of these feedback factors is uncertain, the IPCC provides a range for ECS, rather than a single number. In the September report … the IPCC had lowered the bottom end of the range. … The IPCC based the lowered bound on one narrow line of evidence: the slowing of surface warming during the past decade – yes, the faux pause.”

Science: For well over a decade there has been no global warming at all. The pause is not faux, it is real, as Railroad Engineer Pachauri, the IPCC’s joke choice for climate-science chairman, has publicly admitted. And the absence of any global warming for up to a quarter of a century is not “one narrow line of evidence”: it is the heart of the entire debate. The warming that was predicted has not happened.

Verdict: Truth value 0. Mann is here at odds with the IPCC, which – for once – paid heed to the wisdom of its expert reviewers and explicitly abandoned the models, such as that of Mann, which have been consistent only in their relentless exaggeration of the global warming rate.

Mann: “Many climate scientists – myself included – think that a single decade is too brief to accurately measure global warming and that the IPCC was unduly influenced by this one, short-term number.”

Science: Overlooking the split infinitive, the IPCC was not “unduly influenced”: it was, at last, taking more account of evidence from the real world than of fictitious predictions from the vast but inept computer models that were the foundation of the climate scare. Nor was the IPCC depending upon “one short-term number”.

James Hansen of NASA projected 0.5 C°/decade global warming as his “business-as-usual” case in testimony before Congress in 1988. The IPCC’s 1990 First Assessment Report took Hansen’s 0.5 C°/decade as its upper bound. It projected 0.35 C°/decade as its mid-range estimate, and 0.3 C°/decade as its best estimate.

The pre-final draft of the 2013 Fifth Assessment Report projected 0.23 C°/decade as its mid-range estimate, but the published version reduced this value to just 0.13 C°/decade – little more than a quarter of Hansen’s original estimate of a quarter of a century previously.

Observed outturn has been 0.08 Cº/decade since 1901, 0.12 C°/decade since 1950, 0.14 C°/decade since 1990, and zero since the late 1990s.

Three-quarters of the “climate crisis” predicted just 24 years ago has not come to pass. The Fifth Assessment Report bases its near-term projections on a start-date of 2005. The visible divergence of the predicted and observed trends since then is remarkable.



It is still more remarkable how seldom in the scientific journals the growing discrepancy between prediction and observation is presented or discussed.

Verdict: Truth value 0. Step by inexorable step, the IPCC is being driven to abandon one extremist prediction after another, as real-world observation continues to fall a very long way short of what it had been predicting.

Mann: “The accumulated effect of volcanic eruptions during the past decade, including the Icelandic volcano with the impossible name, Eyjafjallajökull, may have had a greater cooling effect on the earth’s surface than has been accounted for in most climate model simulations. There was also a slight but measurable decrease in the sun’s output that was not taken into account in the IPCC’s simulations.”

Science: So the models failed to make proper allowance for, still less to predict, what actually happened in the real world.

Verdict: Truth value 0. Eyjafjallajökull caused much disruption, delaying me in the United States for a week (it’s an ill wind …), but it was a comparatively minor volcanic eruption whose signature in the temperature record cannot be readily distinguished from the la Niña cooling following the el Niño at the beginning of 2010. The discrepancy between models’ predictions and observed reality can no longer be as plausibly dismissed as this, and the IPCC knows it.

Mann: “In the latter half of the decade, La Niña conditions persisted in the eastern and central tropical Pacific, keeping global surface temperatures about 0.1 degree C colder than average …”

Science: There were La Niña (cooling) events in 1979, 1983, 1985, 1989, 1993, 1999, 2004, and 2008 – the only la Niña in the second half of the noughties. There were, however, two el Niño (warming) events: in 2007 and 2010.

Verdict: Truth value 0. There is very little basis in the observed record for what Mann says. He is looking for a pretext – any pretext – rather than facing the fact that the models have been programmed to exaggerate future global warming.

Mann: “Finally, one recent study suggests that incomplete sampling of Arctic temperatures led to underestimation of how much the globe actually warmed.”

Science: And that “study” has been debunked. The numerous attempts by meteorological agencies around the world to depress temperatures in the early 20th century to make the centennial warming rate seem larger than it is have far outweighed any failure to measure temperature change in one tiny region of the planet.

Verdict: Truth value 0. Increasingly, as the science collapses, the likes of Mann will resort in desperation to single studies, usually written by one or another of the remarkably small clique of bad scientists who have been driving this silly scare. Meanwhile, the vrai pause continues. As CO2 concentrations increase, the Pause will not be likely to continue indefinitely. But it is now clear that the rate at which the world will warm will be considerably less than the usual suspects have predicted.

Mann: “When all the forms of evidence are combined, they point to a most likely value for ECS that is close to three degrees C.”

Science: The IPCC has now become explicit about not being explicit about a central estimate of climate sensitivity. Given that two-thirds of Mann’s suggested 3 Cº value depends upon the operation over millennial timescales of temperature feedbacks that Mann himself admits are subject to enormous uncertainties; given that not one of the feedbacks can be directly measured or distinguished by any empirical method either from other feedbacks or from the forcings that triggered it; and given that non-radiative transports are woefully represented in the models, there is no legitimate scientific basis whatsoever for Mann’s conclusion that a 3 Cº climate sensitivity is correct.