More bullshit

[billy the kid]

This is part of todays headlines from one of our socalled "property experts"

"Q: Should I put off buying my next property till we reach the bottom? How will I know?

A: It really depends on your circumstances.

This is a great time to buy your first home with less competition from property investors and the opportunity for assistance of government grants.

It’s also a good time to upgrade your home because even though your current home may have lost some value over the last few years, the home you’re upgrading to will most likely have lost a little more. So you win.

As for property investors, trying to time the market is a flawed strategy.

Financial modelling has shown that the most important factor in a property’s long term performance is its rate of capital growth.

Buying cheaply or timing the market makes minimal difference to its performance in the long term.

Imagine you managed to save $50,000 buying your $700,000 investment property by timing the market or snaring a bargain.

Fast forward 20 years and, if your property is well located in a high growth “investment grade” suburb, it is likely to be worth over $2 million.

That $50,000 saving you may, or may not, make today will be insignificant in the scheme of things.

The bottom line is, it’s more important to focus on the quality of your asset than timing and then hold your investment for the long term and allow leverage and compounding to work its magic."

More absolute garbage..these people are the experts which we look towards for advice...how can we trust them if what they sprout is absolute garbage....
I would hate to be a young couple looking for a first home today...whose advice do you believe...theyre all liars......

[billy the kid]

Well didnt we just get told the best time to buy is now....and then this comes out from another so called expert......
"The questions on Australia’s mind: how much further will property values fall? And for how much longer?

While the property market decline does appear to be slowing, it’s also widening – so those questions are still literally million-dollar questions.

But that doesn’t mean buyers need to enter the property market blind, or in a panic.

“After numerous Saturday afternoons spent mourning another house that got away from them at auction, first home buyers can finally take a deep breath and think about their options,” Canstar finance expert Steve Mickenbecker told Yahoo Finance.Should you buy property now or wait two years? Here’s the verdict

They’re the questions on Australia’s mind: how much further will property values fall? And for how much longer?

While the property market decline does appear to be slowing, it’s also widening – so those questions are still literally million-dollar questions.

But that doesn’t mean buyers need to enter the property market blind, or in a panic.

“After numerous Saturday afternoons spent mourning another house that got away from them at auction, first home buyers can finally take a deep breath and think about their options,” Canstar finance expert Steve Mickenbecker told Yahoo Finance.

“With house prices falling, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, the desperation to get into the market fast has faded.

“Not only can first home buyers hold out for the house they dream of, but they can hold out until they save more deposit and avoid lenders mortgage insurance.”

So here’s what would happen if you bought now
Scenario #1: Buy now

Buy today with a 10 per cent deposit and pay lenders’ mortgage insurance (LMI) on smaller 10 per cent deposit.

Purchase price: $530,999 (Based on median national unit price, Domain data)
Deposit of 10 per cent: $53,100
Loan amount: $487,075 (average first home buyer loan size)
Estimated LMI: $9,176
Monthly repayments: $2,531 over 30 years
Interest over the term of the loan: $424,100
Total repayments over the term of the loan: $911,175
Scenario #2: Delay by two years, 10 per cent price increase

Buy in two years with a 20 per cent deposit and no LMI. The market increases by 10 per cent.

Purchase price: $584,099
Deposit of 20 per cent: $116,820
Loan amount: $467,279
Estimated LMI: $0
Monthly repayments: $2,372 over 30 years
Interest over the term of the loan: $386,733
Total repayments over the term of the loan: $854,013
Scenario #3: Delay by two years, 10 per cent price reduction

Buy in two years with a 20 per cent deposit and no LMI. The market drops by 10 per cent.

Purchase price: $477,899
Deposit of 20 per cent: $95,580
Loan amount: $382,319
Estimated LMI: $0
Monthly repayments: $1,942 over 30 years
Interest over the term of the loan: $316, 791
Total repayments over the term of the loan: $699,110
It means that even if buyers wait two years and prices go up by 10 per cent, buyers are still better off than if they’d jumped in today and paid lenders’ mortgage insurance.

“When prices were going through the roof, it was easier to justify a $9,000 insurance premium. It gave buyers peace of mind that they were in the market and didn’t have to continue to chase prices further up,” Mickenbecker explained.

“But it also meant a bigger loan, which meant higher monthly repayments and interest over the life of the loan.”

These days, the fear of missing out isn’t as strong, he continued, and it means buyers can breathe out and take their time.

“In the changed world of today, if prices fall by 10 per cent, the required loan amount would likely decrease by $100,000, resulting in buyers having a higher deposit as they’re paying 10 per cent less for the house meaning they may not require lenders’ mortgage insurance.

“If the widely predicted downward direction for prices holds true, the case for wait and save more wins all round,” Mickenbecker added.

“The pressure is off first home buyers and they can make decisions in their long-term interests. It’s sellers that are now feeling the squeeze.”

Mickenbecker’s comments come as the Australian housing market continues its sustained decline, falling 0.6 per cent in the month of March."
End quote....
Interesting how the "experts" have different opinions as to when to buy....how does the 25yo couple know who to believe or trust when it comes to buying....buy now...buy later....confusion reigns supreme amongst the experts...glad Im not 25yo and looking for my first house.......

[Black Orchid]

Sydney house prices more than doubled in 5 years. They need to slide back a lot more than they have before young people have even half a hope of getting their foot in the door.

[billy the kid]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04- ... -corelogic

This is from Zero Hedge...who would have thought a backwater country like Australia would hit the headlines like this...
Who in the US would really care about Australia...we're nowhere in world economies....
It doesnt go USA UK France Germany then Australia.....we are no-where...yet our disastrous real estate market
hits the headlines.....
And some of our experts are saying buy today....theyre kidding arent they....
The Fed in Australia has been sitting on its hands for over two years with no movement in interest rates...
And the rumour is that the next move could be down......well, how long does it takes for these morons to wake up....
Incompetent morons running the Fed and incompetent morons in government and opposition...god help us....

[billy the kid]

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy ... 2c32fd19b6

When a big bank fails...dont expect to be able to get your money back...
And if youre under 40 you wont get a cent of your super.....itll be all gone...
When the next GFC arrives...its going to blow up in everyones face...big time....

[Black Orchid]

Wouldn't bother me if housing prices dropped 50%. At least that way my kids won't have to pay $1 million plus for an absolute dump.

It's not going to happen though.

[Neferti]

Wouldn't bother me if housing prices dropped 50%. At least that way my kids won't have to pay $1 million plus for an absolute dump.

It's not going to happen though.

I couldn't care less either. My daughter and her husband rented for several years but they went without and saved like mad and got a deposit and Mortgage about 7-8 years ago, after they had 3 kids and she had stayed at home. Back in the day the only course I had was to pay monthly ... they pay fortnightly and have reduced their mortgage by "years" .... NOTHING is easy.

Your kids are lucky that you have room for them to stay and be able to save!

[billy the kid]

Dont get me wrong...I dont want the prices to stay up....just sayin that the shit is going to hit the fan and there will be a massive
reset...prices will come down....a bank could go down....stock market could crash ..super funds will collapse......GFC means GFC,,,worse than 1929 crash.......just an opinion Ive had for a year or so....
My prediction...all orders down to 3000.... Dow Jones down to 12000.....Deutsche Bank to go belly up....
Interest rates to head to zero...even into a deflationary rate...youll be paying the bank..not them paying you...
I suppose that makes me an econophobic.....