Polling Season is back!
Essential Report has primaries 49/35 to the ALP washing into a TPP of 59/41 - plus a big bag of other questions.
Details & a link later, kiddies!
Link: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/fi ... 120109.pdf
Poll Tracking
Forum rules
Don't poop in these threads. This isn't Europe, okay? There are rules here!
Don't poop in these threads. This isn't Europe, okay? There are rules here!
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Jovial Monk
Re: Poll Tracking
First Roy Morgan Poll for 2009
60:40
lieberals obviously having trouble convincing people they made a mistake on 24/11/2007, or presenting arguments why people should support them. Julie Bishop as Shadow Treasurer is making them look stupid and even Attabull not correcting that appearance! Any odds on both still being in their leadership places at the time of the next election?
BTW Sheepthought blogged on polls. He doesn't believe in them. Probably would if they were 40:60.
About time the Lieberals stopped pretending the ALP were socialists or communists (Hi WI
) and tried to win back some of the centre. Heard Nick Minchin saying he didn't think Payne's suggestion that the party become a bit moderate was good, so it will take an election or three before the Fins and Nuts can even think about becoming competitive.
60:40
lieberals obviously having trouble convincing people they made a mistake on 24/11/2007, or presenting arguments why people should support them. Julie Bishop as Shadow Treasurer is making them look stupid and even Attabull not correcting that appearance! Any odds on both still being in their leadership places at the time of the next election?
BTW Sheepthought blogged on polls. He doesn't believe in them. Probably would if they were 40:60.
About time the Lieberals stopped pretending the ALP were socialists or communists (Hi WI
) and tried to win back some of the centre. Heard Nick Minchin saying he didn't think Payne's suggestion that the party become a bit moderate was good, so it will take an election or three before the Fins and Nuts can even think about becoming competitive.-
Jovial Monk
Re: Poll Tracking
Hmmm not a poll, but the SA Frome by-election is interesting!
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/ Anthony greens take on it after counting finished last night.
A good chance the Lieberals will lose the seat!
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/ Anthony greens take on it after counting finished last night.
A good chance the Lieberals will lose the seat!
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Jovial Monk
Re: Poll Tracking
Newspoll 54:46
Bit of a drop from their 59:41 which was likely an outlier. A very large lead for Labor. Attabull pulled slightly out of Horatio country wrt PPM, moving to 22% approval from 19%. not much of a move!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/st ... 01,00.html
Essential research came in at 59:41.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/ ... 190109.pdf they usually ask interesting questions besides voting intention, approval & PPM
ER and Morgans sampling algorithm gives results biased towards Labor, Galaxy/ACNielson more biased to the Fibs/Nuts and Newspoll somewhere in between. Generally individual polls don' mean much, it is the trend that is important.
Bit of a drop from their 59:41 which was likely an outlier. A very large lead for Labor. Attabull pulled slightly out of Horatio country wrt PPM, moving to 22% approval from 19%. not much of a move!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/st ... 01,00.html
Essential research came in at 59:41.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/ ... 190109.pdf they usually ask interesting questions besides voting intention, approval & PPM
ER and Morgans sampling algorithm gives results biased towards Labor, Galaxy/ACNielson more biased to the Fibs/Nuts and Newspoll somewhere in between. Generally individual polls don' mean much, it is the trend that is important.
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skippy
Re: Poll Tracking
They allow a 3% error rate monk so 19% to 22% seems about right, but I'd say the 22% was a peak, next time he might be 16% , I think the 20% mark will be as good as it gets.Jovial Monk wrote:Newspoll 54:46
Bit of a drop from their 59:41 which was likely an outlier. A very large lead for Labor. Attabull pulled slightly out of Horatio country wrt PPM, moving to 22% approval from 19%. not much of a move!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/st ... 01,00.html
Essential research came in at 59:41.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/ ... 190109.pdf they usually ask interesting questions besides voting intention, approval & PPM
ER and Morgans sampling algorithm gives results biased towards Labor, Galaxy/ACNielson more biased to the Fibs/Nuts and Newspoll somewhere in between. Generally individual polls don' mean much, it is the trend that is important.
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Jovial Monk
Re: Poll Tracking
The last seven Newspolls have gone like this:
20-Sep-08: 55: 45
11-Oct-08: 55: 45
26-Oct-08: 54: 46
09-Nov-08: 55: 45
23-Nov-08: 55: 45
07-Dec-08: 59: 41
19-Jan-09: 54: 46
(pinched from Pollbludger)
20-Sep-08: 55: 45
11-Oct-08: 55: 45
26-Oct-08: 54: 46
09-Nov-08: 55: 45
23-Nov-08: 55: 45
07-Dec-08: 59: 41
19-Jan-09: 54: 46
(pinched from Pollbludger)
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Jovial Monk
Re: Poll Tracking
WOOOOOHOOOOO!!!!!!
Far fucking out! The Fibs DID lose the seat of Frome!!! Weeehaaahhhhh!!!!!
Former Premier and Opposition Leader Rob Kerin held Frome with a nearly 4% buffer!
Wow! Even Pollbludger, even Antony Green (no 'H' in Antony, please note!) picked the fibs to win Frome! It seemed the independent was too far behind Labor to come second and so would miss out on the Labor 2nd preferences! But he wasn't! Also wise speculation that the prepolls etc would favor the Fib seems to be wrong.
Martin Hamilton-Smith, SA Opposition Leader and hyphenated bore, is wearing LOTS of egg on his face: he was big on saying Labor was in trouble! He was right, but had the wrong party!!! Hahahahaha!
Another one wearing lots of egg on his face (no doubt an improvement!) is Sheepy! Rather foolishly he said the polls don't matter! Ummm SA Newspoll, 52Labor to 48%Fib seems to be well and truly born out!
Seems 2000-2100 is to be the century of Labor!
Far fucking out! The Fibs DID lose the seat of Frome!!! Weeehaaahhhhh!!!!!
Former Premier and Opposition Leader Rob Kerin held Frome with a nearly 4% buffer!
Wow! Even Pollbludger, even Antony Green (no 'H' in Antony, please note!) picked the fibs to win Frome! It seemed the independent was too far behind Labor to come second and so would miss out on the Labor 2nd preferences! But he wasn't! Also wise speculation that the prepolls etc would favor the Fib seems to be wrong.
Martin Hamilton-Smith, SA Opposition Leader and hyphenated bore, is wearing LOTS of egg on his face: he was big on saying Labor was in trouble! He was right, but had the wrong party!!! Hahahahaha!
Another one wearing lots of egg on his face (no doubt an improvement!) is Sheepy! Rather foolishly he said the polls don't matter! Ummm SA Newspoll, 52Labor to 48%Fib seems to be well and truly born out!
Seems 2000-2100 is to be the century of Labor!
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Jovial Monk
Re: Poll Tracking
From PollBludger (go to Possum, PB & Antony Green for all your psephy needs) It appears the Nuts HTV card preferencing Brock was pretty much followed (48% Nuts prefs went to Brock,) contrary to advice from scrutineers at the scene.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/ ... /#comments
Hmmm Pineapple Party notwithstanding, seems the Nuts are, finally, becoming a bit more independent. About time, their lapdog-like cosying up to the Fibs meant they were heading for total extinction. And the PP seems to be about to split again, which i always expected it to. It has no hope of winning the next Qld election.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/ ... /#comments
Hmmm Pineapple Party notwithstanding, seems the Nuts are, finally, becoming a bit more independent. About time, their lapdog-like cosying up to the Fibs meant they were heading for total extinction. And the PP seems to be about to split again, which i always expected it to. It has no hope of winning the next Qld election.
Last edited by Jovial Monk on Wed Jan 28, 2009 12:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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