May unemployment figures out tomorrow

[Jovial Monk]

And crap journalists and 'commentators' and pundits generally will likely crap on again about oh isn't it awful the trifling cut to the ABS funding has reduced the sampling size and so we don't know the 'real' figure etc. Ignore the cretins and sheeple alike.

Here is a great blog, one as you will see politicians read, a blog that made the Australian get real about reporting 'their own Newspoll.' It is a great blog because the guy who writes it knows what he is talking about, gives his real name, political affiliation etc etc and writes in a way that takes his readership into account, makes it a blog that shows it is the blogger and his readers understand stuff even journalists don't and a sense of humor underlies it all. Scott also encourages comments both for and against. A great blog, an influential blog and one that sorts out this crap about ABS job survey sample sizes, a blog that at least one Senator reads.

Anyway, here is the link.

[JW Frogen]

I have ten bucks riding on 100% unemployment.

[Jovial Monk]

If you actually had ten bucks to bet (married men with kids usually don't ) I would have taken that bet.

[skippy]

The unemployment figures will be interesting monk, I think they would have risen but who knows.
I notice yesterday that figures for consumer confidence were the highest they've been for twenty years, that has to be a good thing.

[Jovial Monk]

Business confidence made a big rise to be just in the black--hope that means business starts investing!

[skippy]

Numbers are out 5.7% same as two months ago.

[Jovial Monk]

Fucking excellent!

[Jovial Monk]

Possum's take on it

1700 increase to 5.7% as Skippy said, pretty good when other countries are seeing millions sacked each month. Due partly to Rudd/Swan/Gillard/Tanner and partly due to firms knowing they should hang on to their staff, though shifts/hours worked can be reduced, so they can be expected to take off quickly when the recovery, 'green shoots' of which are being seen now, really takes off.

Thank fuck Labor didn't just "wait and see"!

As to the debt, it will be repaid quick enough once the economy takes off again and tax receipts go up. With the FTTH network a software/content industry will roar into being speeding the recovery.

What if nothing had been done? More than one bank would have fallen over by now, unable to roll over tranches of debt and a possible run or runs by depositors. Retail would be in ruins, and unemployment just from retailers cutting back & collapsing would be sucking money out the Treasury in dole payments like crazy. Followed by transport which would fuck up our rural and other exports and manufacturing or what is left of that after 12 years of the Rodent. Debt would be more like $500Bn, money would be being printed by the mile, no infrastructure work being done, we would shakily try to get back on our feet when the rest of world recovered. Roads, schools hopsitals etc would be even older and more difficult to keep going.

[Jovial Monk]

To put it in perspective, a quote from PB:

To illustrate how good the unemployment numbers are, consider that the average rate in the OECD was 7.8% in April, adn trending up:

“OECD Unemployment Rate Hits 15-Year High In April

LONDON (Dow Jones)–The unemployment rate for the 29-member countries of the Organisation for Economic and Cooperation and Development rose to its highest level for 15 years in April as recession weighed on labor markets across the world.

The jobless rate across the OECD area rose to 7.8% in April from 7.7% in March, matching a level last seen in April 1994, the Paris-based think tank said Tuesday. The rate, which has risen 2.2 percentage points since April 2008, was just one percentage point short of the highest level since comparable records began in 1988, it said.

The jobless rate in the Group of Seven leading industrial nations - Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the U.K., U.S. and Japan - rose to 7.7% from 7.5% in March, the highest rate since records began on that figure in 1992 and also 2.2 percentage points higher than April last year.

The 16 countries that use the euro saw their unemployment rate increase to 9.2% from 8.9% in March, a 1.9 percentage point increase over the previous 12 months. European Union statistics agency Eurostat said earlier this month that 9.2% was the highest rate since September 1999.

The highest unemployment rate across the OECD countries was registered by Spain, where it soared to 18.1% in April from 17.3% the previous month. A collapse in the country’s construction sector led to Spain’s biggest economic contraction since records began in 1970 during the first quarter.

In joint second place, Ireland and the Slovak Republic both saw their unemployment rates rise to 11.1% from 10.6% in March.

At the other end of the scale, the Netherlands posted the lowest unemployment rate among the OECD countries at 3.0%, followed by South Korea with 3.8% and Austria at 4.2%. ”
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news ... f10ed1a370

Also see the excellent graph here:
http://community.cengage.com/GECResourc ... tions.aspx

Australia is fifth lowest on this list, and in some ways even that is unfairly harsh. Different countries have different definitions of unemployment, and some don’t count all those looking for full time work as unemployed. Some like South Korea have lower unemployment benefits, making people accept almost any low paid work. The USA, UK, France, Germany, Italy and Spain are now all higher than Australia for unemployment.

AiA, how is the job situ in the good old US of A?

[Ethnic]

The public sector is shitting themselves over the Rann govt's plans to cut 1600 jobs. Voluntary redundancies are being offered all over the place. I doubt enough will volunteer so the axe will fall soon. I hope I'm not one of them.