Will Trump nuke Iran?

[Bobby]

What does Trump mean by annihilation of Iran's military?


What Trump probably means by annihilation is that
he'll use the B61-12  nuclear tipped bunker busters
to take out Pickaxe mountain and all the underground missile sites in Iran.


https://armscontrolcenter.org/u-s-nonst ... r-weapons/

The B61-12 will have variable yield capability – ranging from 98 percent smaller to three times greater than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima – and a new tail kit to increase accuracy. The B61-12 entered full-scale production in the fall of 2022 and U.S. C-17A aircraft were cleared to transport the new bombs to Europe in January 2023.

In the fall of 2023, the Biden administration announced plans for yet another variation of the B61 gravity bomb, the B61-13. This weapon is planned to have a similar earth-penetrating capability to the B83-1 megaton bomb and would use the warhead currently on the B61-7 with maximum yield of 360 kilotons (compared to a 50 kiloton maximum yield of the B61-12).

The U.S. Air Force deploys an estimated 100 B61s at six NATO air bases in five countries.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B61_nuclear_bomb

The B61 nuclear bomb is the primary thermonuclear gravity bomb in the United States Enduring Stockpile following the end of the Cold War. It is a low-to-intermediate yield strategic and tactical nuclear weapon featuring a two-stage radiation implosion design.

[tllwd]

The US is dispatching roughly 9,000 sailors and Marines aboard a flotilla of warships to the Middle East, a major naval buildup that could bring three American aircraft carriers to the region by late October or November as President Donald Trump warns that renewed strikes against Iran remain possible.

https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/us-send ... .500695514

[Bobby]

Robert Anthony Pape  born April 24, 1960) is an American political scientist

Pape graduated with a bachelor's degree in political science from the University of Pittsburgh in 1982,[3] as a Harry S. Truman Scholar. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Chicago in 1988 in the same field.


No, Iran Isn’t Years Away From A Nuke; It’s Actually Much Worse | War Expert

[Black Orchid]

Will Trump nuke Iran? No!

Will he MOAB it? Quite likely!

[tllwd]

Will Trump nuke Iran? No!

Will he MOAB it? Quite likely!

They used it in Afghanistan by the President Trump's order on a 300-meter deep cave and tunnel complex.


It was delivered by MC-130 cargo aircraft, which can be problematic in Iran due to better air defense systems.
MOABs are too large for the stealth aircraft B-2's suspension and release systems.

IMHO, better alternative is GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP).

[tllwd]

MOAB (GBU-43/B) vs. MOP (GBU-57A/B)


Feature MOAB ("Mother of All Bombs")
Primary Type Surface/Air-blast munition
Total Weight ~21,600 to 22,000 lbs (approx. 9,800 kg)
Explosive Content ~18,000 lbs of TNT-equivalent (massive high-yield blast)
Mechanism Detonates just above the surface to flatten wide above-ground areas (caves, surface structures, up to a ~1 km footprint)
Delivery Method Pushed out of the rear cargo ramp of a transport aircraft (e.g., MC-130)
Combat History Used in combat (e.g., Afghanistan in 2017)

------------------------------------------------

Feature MOP ("Massive Ordnance Penetrator")
Primary Type Deep-penetrating "bunker buster"
Total Weight ~30,000 to 33,000 lbs (approx. 13,600 kg)
Explosive Content ~5,300 lbs (smaller warhead, heavy steel casing)
Mechanism Burrows deep through rock, soil, and reinforced concrete (up to ~200 feet / 61 meters underground) before detonating
Delivery Method Dropped via heavy stealth bombers like the B-2 Spirit
Combat History Designed for hardened underground targets; historically un-used in live combat prior to reported/recent strategic planning contexts

[Bobby]

Alastair Crooke: BREAKING: Trump Eyes Iran's Pickaxe Mountain—"We'll Knock It Out Fast"

How - without a nuke?

[tllwd]

How - without a nuke?

Pickaxe Mountain Nuclear Complex is buried 80 to 100 meters.

30,000-pound GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs) are designed to penetrate up to 60 meters of reinforced earth or concrete.

Even if MOP does not penetrate directly to center of the Nuclear Complex shock wave carried throw 20-40 meters of rock will produce considerable damage inside of the Complex.
That is from single MOP while a B2 can carry two MOPs and there can be more then one B2 taking part in the attack.